There is one defining and unassailable idea that should be taken as an axiom by both parties as campaign strategists plot a path to the White House: No matter who the Dems nominate (Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, the San Diego Chicken, George W. Bush, or Groucho Marx), turnout in November 2020 at the polls will set a new all-time record from the left.

Trump has virtually guaranteed that fact. Never before have we had a president who has so relished in provoking his opposite party. Never have we had a president that so pointedly declared himself president of just a portion of the country. At some point, all presidents at least go through the motions of constructing the pretense that they are there to serve the best interests of all Americans. Not this guy.

As a result, Trump vs Blank is an inspiring battle cry for the US left.

That has one extremely important consequence for Democratic primary campaign strategists: Which candidate will not inspire the same kind of turnout from the right?

We may take it as a secondary axiom that the Never-Trumper faction of the GOP is less-than-enthusiastic about re-electing Mr. Trump for four more years. However, if the left proceeds to make this election a referendum on Socialism or late-term abortion rather than a referendum on Mr. Trump, we may see the US right unify behind Trump to defend the country against what they almost certainly see as the greater of two evils.

Hence, when it comes to that elusive quality called “electability”, for the left in 2020, it means an alignment with these ideas — ie, one maximizes electability by playing to the center and defusing turnout on the right while taking for granted a massive tailwind of anti-Trump turnout from the left.

This has one other key consequence: The White House (and the President’s impactful twitter feed) will be actively rooting for Mr. Sanders and against Mr. Biden, as these two candidates present the most obvious poles of this spectrum, with Biden already actively playing to the center and Sanders clearly painting a path most likely to unify the political right and center behind Mr. Trump next fall.


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