He is now leading in the polls by a very wide margin. This is a remarkable feat from the standpoint of many analysts. Biden was widely predicted to start with a big lead and then quickly give up the ghost and fall back into the pack, particularly after a couple debates.

And yet, here we are: Biden is past the first two debates and looking tougher than ever to defeat. He has carved out a separate lane as the only top-tier moderate in the Democratic primary race. And that means he can now basically stick to his guns from here on out — he doesn’t have to cower and placate on hyper-progressive ideals anymore because he has clearly branded things the other direction and remains very much the frontrunner as a result.

Betting odds from Predictit.org have him as the runaway winner of the nomination at this point. But, but, but… it can always go wrong this far from the convention.

In this case, we see a very specific path of trouble for Mr. Biden. Between the three of them, Mr. Sanders, Ms. Warren, and Ms. Harris, together, control a lead over Mr. Biden of anywhere from about 1 to 10 points.

If we assume that none of the supporters of these three far-left progressives would switch from their respective candidate to supporting Mr. Biden, but would instead switch to another of this group of three progressives, then it isn’t impossible to imagine a scenario where the far-left progressive support collapses from a diverse investment into an intense spike of support for one strong point.

In other words, if far-left progressive voters start to get the sense that Bernie and Kamala aren’t going to win, they might all pile into Elizabeth Warren’s camp, and push her into the lead over Mr. Biden.

Right now, the “lone moderate” identity is really working for Mr. Biden.

But there’s a prepotency building up for a unification of support behind a “lone extremist” that could radically shift the picture — and probably very much in Mr. Trump’s favor for re-election given the very poor polling numbers for the far-left candidates with voters who likely haven’t already made up their minds about whether to support “Trump” or “[Dem]” next November.


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